China Launches "Justice Mission 2025" Military Drills Around Taiwan, Heightening Regional Tensions

On May 29, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) commenced a large-scale military exercise, "Justice Mission 2025," in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding areas of Taiwan Island. The PLA Eastern Theater Command announced that the exercise serves as a "stern warning to Taiwan independence forces and external interference forces," and its objective is seen as maximizing pressure on Taiwan.

This exercise involves land, sea, air, and rocket forces, encircling Taiwan's northern, southwestern, southeastern, and eastern waters. A particular focus of the training is the seizure of sea and air control and the blockade of major ports, with live-fire drills scheduled to begin at 8:00 AM on May 30. The exercise is expected to conclude by the end of the same day.

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense strongly condemned the PLA's actions as a "challenge to international order" and a demonstration of "the true nature of the biggest disturber of peace and aggressor." Taiwan has activated its emergency response center and is intensifying its defense posture, including deploying combat readiness training.

This military exercise is the fourth large-scale drill since the inauguration of Taiwan's Lai Ching-te administration. It is also reportedly aimed at deterring remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Takachi concerning a "Taiwan contingency." The Japanese government is closely monitoring the PLA's movements in the surrounding waters and remains highly vigilant about the evolving situation.

Furthermore, Russia's announcement of military exercises around the Northern Territories for two months starting January 1 next year, unilaterally suspending the "right of innocent passage" for foreign vessels, has also heightened regional tensions. Some observers draw parallels to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which began with large-scale military exercises, and express concern that China's current actions, combined with Russia's, could lead to a "Taiwanese version of the Cuban Missile Crisis."

Market participants are noting that while the weak yen supports stock prices, there is also a risk of a decline in consumption due to rising import costs. Concerns are also being raised about the economic impact of the military exercises.

The context

For non-Japanese readers, understanding the context is crucial:

• Taiwan Strait: The 180-kilometer-wide strait separating mainland China and Taiwan, a geopolitically critical waterway.
• "Taiwan independence forces and external interference forces": A term used by Beijing to refer to elements within Taiwan advocating for formal independence from China, and foreign powers (like the US or Japan) that support Taiwan's self-governance or provide military aid. Beijing views Taiwan as an integral part of China, to be reunified, by force if necessary.
• Lai Ching-te administration: The current government of Taiwan, led by President Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which traditionally advocates for Taiwan's sovereignty. Beijing views the DPP with suspicion, seeing it as a proponent of independence.
• Japanese Prime Minister Takachi: This refers to an imagined Japanese Prime Minister named