Japan's Ruling Coalition Faces Loss of Upper House Majority in 2025 Election, Media Reports

According to flash reports from major media outlets, including NHK, it has become clear that the ruling coalition, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, is facing difficulty in maintaining its majority of seats in the House of Councillors election held on July 20, 2025. This outcome suggests the possibility that the LDP-led government could lose its majority in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors for the first time since the party's formation in 1955, which is expected to significantly impact future government operations. In contrast, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) is showing momentum to gain more seats than it held before the election, and the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) and Sanseito are also certain to significantly increase their seat counts. If the ruling coalition fails to secure a majority in the House of Councillors, it would result in a so-called 'divided Diet,' making the passage of bills difficult. This situation could also lead to increased calls for Prime Minister Ishiba's resignation or the dissolution of the House of Representatives, drawing significant attention to future political developments. Measures against rising prices were one of the main issues in this election. Even Chinese state media reported 'ruling party difficult to maintain majority' in their flash news, indicating that the election's outcome is being closely watched from overseas. In the unfolding political landscape, the LDP and Komeito may explore forming coalitions with parties like the Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito to maintain a majority, making the formation of a new political framework a key focus.

The context

Japan's national legislature, known as the Diet, is bicameral, consisting of the House of Representatives (Lower House) and the House of Councillors (Upper House). For legislation to pass, it generally requires approval from both houses. A 'divided Diet' (ねじれ国会, nejire kokkai) occurs when the ruling party or coalition controls the powerful Lower House but lacks a majority in the Upper House, making it challenging to pass government-sponsored bills and potentially leading to political gridlock. The reference to 'since the party's formation in 1955' alludes to the '1955 System,' a period of near-continuous rule by the Liberal Democratic Party, making a loss of majority in both chambers a historically significant event. The Prime Minister is typically the leader of the largest party in the Lower House. In a divided Diet scenario, there are often increased calls for the Prime Minister's resignation or for a snap election to resolve the legislative deadlock.