NICT Warns of Large Solar Flare Impacts Reaching Earth November 12-13

The National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) announced that the effects of a large solar flare, which originated on the sun's surface, are expected to reach Earth from the night of November 12 through November 13. Consequently, there is a risk of degradation in Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and disruptions to shortwave communications used by aircraft, ships, and other vessels. NICT is urging caution.

According to NICT, multiple large solar flares, including an X5.1 class event, occurred, ejecting high-speed coronal gas towards Earth. Concerns are rising that this coronal gas could disturb Earth's geomagnetism and ionosphere, potentially causing malfunctions in artificial satellites and significant errors in GPS location information. Particularly for transportation systems like airplanes and ships that rely on shortwave radio for communication, there is a risk of communication outages.

On the other hand, no direct impact on general mobile phone communications or human health has been reported. However, the geomagnetic disturbances could trigger the appearance of low-latitude auroras, with observations already reported in regions such as Hokkaido, Tohoku, and Hokuriku. While a beautiful phenomenon, its occurrence signifies heightened global space weather activity.

NICT is advising system administrators and users to remain vigilant, as geomagnetic and ionospheric conditions may fluctuate over the next one to two days. For individuals planning activities heavily reliant on GPS, such as mountain climbing, specific warnings have been issued to take extra safety precautions, including sharing climbing plans, carrying paper maps, and preparing emergency food supplies.

The context

The National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) is Japan's primary national research institute for information and communications technology, including space weather monitoring and forecasting. Similar to the role played by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in the United States, NICT provides critical alerts regarding solar activity and its potential impacts on Earth's technological infrastructure.

Solar flares are intense bursts of radiation from the sun's surface. They are often accompanied by Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), which are massive expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the sun's corona, moving at high speeds. An X-class solar flare is the most powerful category, with an X5.1 event being a particularly strong flare. When these CMEs are directed towards Earth, they can interact with our planet's magnetic field, causing what are known as geomagnetic storms.

These geomagnetic storms disturb Earth's geomagnetism and ionosphere, a layer of the upper atmosphere that is ionized by solar and cosmic radiation. Such disturbances can have several effects:

• GPS Accuracy: GPS signals travel through the ionosphere. Disturbances in this layer can cause delays and refractions of the signals, leading to errors in position calculations, which can be critical for navigation.
• Shortwave Communication: Shortwave radio signals rely on bouncing off the ionosphere to travel long distances. Geomagnetic storms can disrupt this reflection, causing communication outages for aircraft, ships, and amateur radio operators.
• Satellite Malfunctions: Intense radiation and geomagnetic disturbances can affect the electronics of artificial satellites, potentially leading to malfunctions or temporary disruptions.
• Low-Latitude Auroras: While usually seen near the poles, strong geomagnetic storms can push the auroral oval (the region where auroras typically appear) towards the equator, making auroras visible in lower latitude regions, such as parts of Japan.

NICT's warning emphasizes the importance of understanding space weather and taking necessary precautions to mitigate potential disruptions to essential services and activities.