Shigeru Ishiba Tops Mainichi Shimbun Poll for Next Prime Minister Amid Low Cabinet Approval

A recent public opinion poll conducted by the Mainichi Shimbun revealed that Shigeru Ishiba has emerged as the top choice for the "next prime minister." Meanwhile, the current cabinet's approval rating remains low at 29%.

Social Media Reactions and Media Distrust

The poll results have sparked a flurry of reactions on social media (formerly X). Many users expressed surprise and skepticism about Ishiba topping the poll, with comments such as "No way, that's a lie, right?", "Huh?", and "That can't be true. It's left-wing fake news." Opinions questioning the credibility of the survey results are widespread. There's also significant criticism directed at the Mainichi Shimbun's polling methodology and reporting stance, with users expressing clear distrust of the media, using phrases like "Typical Mainichi Shimbun," "The big-liar Mainichi Hentai Shimbun" (a derogatory term), and "Chinese Communist Party propaganda newspaper."

Furthermore, discussions are ongoing regarding Ishiba's "true popularity." Some comments highlight a discrepancy with past election results: "It's genuinely amusing how Mr. Ishiba, who inexplicably enjoyed high popularity in newspaper polls even before becoming party president, consistently suffered crushing defeats in actual elections, revealing his true popularity. Yet, he remains immensely popular only in public opinion polls."

Regarding the cabinet's 29% approval rating, some expressed surprise, asking, "It's still as high as 29%?" Meanwhile, attention is also drawn to the fact that the top reason for supporting the cabinet, cited by 49% of respondents, was "Because there's no one else better or no better party." This highlights the current sentiment among the public that they perceive no viable alternatives in the current political landscape.

Ishiba's support base is reported to include 70% of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) supporters, over 40% of Komeito supporters, 35% of Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) supporters, and 30% of Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party) and Japanese Communist Party (JCP) supporters, suggesting broad support across various demographics. In contrast, some comments point out a bias in support from specific party demographics, stating, "Even among opposition parties, support from CDPJ and and JCP supporters is around 30%, while support from Sanseitō and Democratic Party for the People supporters is only a few percent."

Following these poll results, there's a growing perception within the LDP that moves to "oust Ishiba" are power struggles by lawmakers involved in the recent slush fund scandal. Conversely, there are also movements defending Ishiba, with hashtags like "#Don'tLetIshibaResign" being used. The future of the political landscape hinges on how these poll results are interpreted and how each party strategizes accordingly.

The context

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is Japan's long-dominant conservative political party, which has been in power for most of the post-war period. Shigeru Ishiba is a prominent LDP veteran who has held various cabinet positions, including Minister of Defense and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. He is often seen as a potential future prime minister but has previously failed in attempts to become party leader. The article refers to a "slush fund scandal" (裏金問題), which is a major political scandal that came to light in late 2023. It involved LDP factions, notably the largest faction formerly led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, failing to report fundraising party revenues and diverting funds, leading to arrests and a significant decline in public trust in the ruling party and the government. Public opinion polls conducted by major media outlets like the Mainichi Shimbun are regularly published in Japan and serve as a key barometer of public sentiment towards the government, political parties, and potential leaders.