Kairos No. 3 Launch Postponed: Weather Disrupts Japan's Private Space Endeavor

The highly anticipated launch of the private small rocket “Kairos No. 3” has been canceled, based on a weather analysis, from its scheduled time of 11:00 AM on March 1, 2026. Many stakeholders and spectators who had gathered at Kushimoto Town, Wakayama Prefecture, expressed a mix of anticipation and disappointment.

Space One Inc., the operating company, announced the launch cancellation via its official X (formerly Twitter) account on the same day, stating that a new launch date would be announced once decided. In response to this decision, people who had been waiting for the launch locally were heard saying, “It's a shame, but we'll come back again many times,” and media outlets have also reported on the situation.

As the weather around the launch site appeared clear and sunny, various speculations regarding the reason for the cancellation circulated on social media. Comments included: “Canceled due to weather? But it's clear!” “Is the wind strong?” “Is it vertical shear?” “Is the problem with the weather at the orbital path, not the launch site?” Some even expressed harsh criticism, such as “It's a launch-launch scam,” or “Just a hobby for pseudo-managers funded by subsidies,” revealing a degree of distrust due to the lack of detailed explanation.

The Kairos rocket series has faced repeated setbacks, with the first unit exploding and the second unit's flight being aborted. Consequently, expectations for Kairos No. 3 were exceptionally high. With this latest postponement, calls of “When will the third time be the charm?” are echoing.

Nevertheless, many people continue to closely watch and support Japan's space development efforts, especially the challenges undertaken by private rockets. Numerous positive comments were seen, such as: “Space development is truly difficult. Still, I want to support the spirit of continuous challenge. I'm looking forward to Kairos No. 3's retry!” Kairos No. 3 is carrying five satellites (including one from Taiwan's TASA), and the hope for the first successful private orbital insertion remains strong.

Space One is scheduled to hold a press conference at 1:30 PM on the same day to provide further details regarding the launch cancellation. Everyone awaits the announcement of the next launch date.

The context

The Kairos rocket is a small, solid-fueled rocket developed by Space One Inc., a Japanese company established with investment from major firms like Canon Electronics, IHI Aerospace, Shimizu Corporation, and the Development Bank of Japan. Its primary goal is to provide rapid and frequent launch services for small satellites, a burgeoning sector in the global space industry. The launch site in Kushimoto, Wakayama Prefecture, is Japan's first dedicated commercial spaceport, signifying a significant step in the nation's push toward private sector-led space exploration.

This particular launch of Kairos No. 3 was especially anticipated because the previous two Kairos rockets encountered significant issues: Kairos No. 1 exploded shortly after launch in March 2024, and Kairos No. 2's flight was aborted. These failures have created a sense of urgency and high expectations for No. 3 to achieve Japan's first successful orbital insertion by a private rocket. The repeated postponements and outright cancellations highlight the inherent complexities and challenges of rocket launches, especially for new entrants in the competitive space industry. The public's mixed reactions, from unwavering support to cynical criticism, reflect both a deep national interest in space and frustrations over the setbacks.