African Swine Fever Confirmed in Catalonia, Spain, Sending Ripples Through Japan's Pork Market

The confirmation of African Swine Fever (ASF) in Spain's Catalonia region has sent significant ripples through Japan's domestic pork market. In response, Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) has temporarily suspended imports of pork and pork products from Spain, raising concerns among consumers about price hikes and supply shortages.

An urgent warning from a meat industry insider, widely circulated on social media, stated, "Due to the outbreak of African Swine Fever in Spain, imports of Spanish pork and products using it will cease for quarantine reasons. A considerable volume of Spanish pork, especially pork belly, is distributed domestically, and finding substitutes is difficult. This is expected to trigger a chain reaction, causing pork prices to soar, regardless of whether it's domestic or imported." This forecast predicts an impact on a wide range of products, from everyday ingredients supporting dishes like ramen and hamburg steaks to high-end delicacies such as prosciutto.

Prosciutto enthusiasts, in particular, are expressing distress. A few years ago, when an ASF outbreak in Italy disrupted imports of Italian prosciutto (prosciutto crudo), Spanish jamón serrano stepped in to meet the demand. However, with the current outbreak in Spain, lamentations are being heard: "Following Italy, now Spain also has ASF; Japanese prosciutto is finished," and "Italian imports stopped, and Spanish products single-handedly covered the demand... Where will we get prosciutto from now?" Given that prosciutto requires a long maturation period, some observers suggest it could take several years for it to reappear on the market even after imports resume, leading to concerns like, "We might not be able to eat it for about three years."

African Swine Fever is a highly fatal viral disease specific to pigs and wild boar, and it has been confirmed not to infect humans. However, due to its high infectivity and the absence of an effective vaccine, suspending imports from affected countries is an essential international quarantine measure. On social media, there's discussion about the disease name, such as "African Swine Fever, huh?" and an interest in accurate information, with comments like, "ASF (African Swine Fever, formerly African Swine Cholera) and CSF (Classical Swine Fever, formerly Swine Cholera) seem to be different diseases."

Following these developments, some consumers have posted suggestions of panic buying, such as "Maybe I should freeze the pork that's on sale now" and "I'm going to stock up on two months' worth of pork." Furthermore, with poultry and egg prices already continuously rising, concerns about the impact on household budgets are being voiced, with comments like, "Oh no, we won't be able to eat meat casually anymore...!"

Conversely, amidst the predictions of price hikes, some skeptical opinions have emerged, such as "The impact of Spanish pork on Japan is limited, and this is just hype orchestrated by 'some idiots in the meat industry' trying to inflate prices." There are even occasional conspiracy theory-like posts, such as "Swine fever is also a specialty of those involved in brainwashing toxins!" indicating a mix of conflicting information. MAFF has released information regarding the temporary suspension of pork imports from Spain, calling for a calm response based on accurate information.

The Context of African Swine Fever and Japan's Pork Market

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a highly contagious and deadly viral disease that affects domestic and wild pigs but does not pose a direct health risk to humans. Its rapid spread and lack of a vaccine make it a serious threat to the global pig industry. When ASF is confirmed in a region, importing countries typically impose immediate bans on pork and pork product imports from that area to prevent the disease from entering their own borders. Japan, a major importer of pork, is particularly vulnerable to such disruptions. The country imports a significant volume of pork, and Spanish pork, especially for certain cuts and processed products like jamón serrano, holds a considerable share of the market. Previous outbreaks, such as in Italy which impacted prosciutto imports, have already demonstrated the fragility of supply chains for specific products and the potential for market shifts. This current situation in Spain, a key supplier, highlights the ongoing challenges of global food security and disease prevention in an interconnected world.