Komeito Withdraws from LDP Coalition, Sending Shockwaves Through Japanese Politics (October 10, 2025)

On October 10, 2025, Komeito officially decided to withdraw from its long-standing coalition government with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), sending significant shockwaves through the political world. During a party leaders' meeting held on this day, Komeito conveyed its decision to dissolve the coalition to the LDP. The termination of the LDP-Komeito coalition, which lasted for 26 years, comes immediately after the inauguration of a new LDP leadership under new President Sanae Takaichi, introducing extreme uncertainty into the future political landscape, particularly regarding the next House of Representatives election.

The news, reported as an "extra" edition by the Nikkei Shimbun's electronic version, quickly spread across social media. "Komeito Coalition Withdrawal" became a trending topic, with many users expressing welcome with comments such as "Congratulations!", "Good news!", and "This is incredibly exciting!" At the same time, concerns about the future political situation were also raised. Notably, supporters of the new LDP President Takaichi highly praised the withdrawal, stating, "Ms. Takaichi is amazing! She accomplished what neither Kishida nor Ishiba could!" On the other hand, some comments pointed to a lack of trust in Takaichi for appointing politicians involved in slush fund scandals to key positions, or noted that the move followed a meeting between Chinese Ambassador Wu Jianghao and Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito on October 7.

Komeito's withdrawal from the coalition is expected to be a severe test for the LDP. Some estimates suggest that losing Komeito's organizational votes could put 93 LDP candidates at risk of losing their seats in the next general election, forcing the LDP to seek new cooperative relationships. Additionally, long-standing debates, such as "We should re-examine the separation of politics and religion," may resurface.

The dramatic political change could also impact the market. Concerns are being voiced, such as "Will the market be turbulent next week? Will the Nikkei plunge? Will the USD/JPY rate be chaotic?" Investors are closely monitoring future political developments. Attention is also focused on the selection of the next prime minister and the fate of important legislation, such as an "Anti-Espionage Act."

It has been reported that new LDP President Takaichi stated she was unilaterally informed of the coalition withdrawal, suggesting that relations between the two parties could become even more strained. Many citizens are keenly interested in how this historical political shift will be received and what path Japanese politics will take going forward.

The Context

Komeito, a centrist party, has been the junior partner in the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) coalition government for 26 years. Its primary support base comes from Soka Gakkai, a large lay Buddhist organization, which provides crucial organizational votes during elections. This "organizational vote" system has historically been vital for the LDP, especially in securing seats in smaller constituencies. The current LDP-Komeito coalition has provided significant political stability, enabling the LDP to maintain a dominant position despite various challenges.

The timing of Komeito's withdrawal is particularly significant. It follows the recent election of Sanae Takaichi as the new President of the LDP. Takaichi is known for her conservative stance and, according to some reports, her rise to leadership may have contributed to Komeito's decision. Recent scandals involving LDP politicians and undeclared "slush funds" have also eroded public trust and possibly strained the coalition. The "separation of politics and religion" is a recurring debate in Japan, often brought up in discussions about Komeito's close ties to Soka Gakkai.

The next general election for the House of Representatives is a critical upcoming event. Komeito's decision to leave the coalition means the LDP can no longer rely on Komeito's electoral support, potentially jeopardizing a significant number of LDP seats and dramatically altering the political landscape. This development marks a historic turning point in Japanese politics, with implications for everything from parliamentary power dynamics to economic policy and international relations.